Sunday, May 21, 2006

 

"He's sittin' on 714"

I'm not sure if "honor" is the right word, but in honor of Barry Bonds' current home run total, here's Milo Hamilton's call of Hank Aaron's 715th home run on April 8, 1974, while both members of baseballrelated.com were ensconced in wombs.

Meanwhile, Albert Pujols is on the cover of Sports Illustrated again, for the second time in less than two months, and why not? Also in the issue is Baseball Prospectus's projected home run leader board from the year 2020, which I want to reproduce here for posterity:

1. Barry Bonds (765)
2. Hank Aaron (755)
3. Babe Ruth (714)
4. Alex Rodriguez (678)
5. Willie Mays (660)
6. Adam Dunn (638)
7. Ken Griffey Jr. (637)
8. Albert Pujols (620)
9. Manny Ramirez (589)
10. Sammy Sosa (588)
11. Robotic Hitting Unit HR-1 (587)
12. Frank Robinson (586)


One of the above was actually my own addition to the Baseball Prospectus list, solely to make Levi chuckle.

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Comments:
The one part of this list I really don't get is Adam Dunn beating Pujols by 18 homers. They're the same age--within a few months, and through last season, Pujols had a 43-homer lead on Dunn, 201 to 158. This season, despite Dunn hitting well, Pujols has so far picked up another 7 on him.

And on top of that, Dunn, though very good, is in no way the all-around athlete that Pujols is. He's a poor fielder, a slow runner, a worst percentage hitter, and he strikes out a lot more. None of those is a problem when he's young and this good, but all are the sort of thing it's better to be without as liabilities as you age.
 
Pujols has 226 Home Runs currently. At approximately 14 at bats per dinger, if he has 9000 career at bats, he will hit 642 four baggers.

I am of the opinion that Adam Dunn will hit around 480-520 home runs, based on his penchant for striking out, and the likelyhood of pitchers getting a good enough book on him that he will struggle to consistently put up 40+ HR per year over the next 8 years.

My problem with this estimate is AROD. I have him right around 725 HR at the end of his career, based on him having another 4000+ AB with an avg of 14.5 AB/HR.

Just my opinion of course.
 
I don't think it's fair to count the HRs that are going to be hit by Adam Dunn AFTER he comes back as a zombie.
 
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